When the financial crisis graped the headlines, it was in the top of news here in Venezuela, also. Unfortunately,details about the cause and what was being done to correct the situation were sketchy at best. About all I knew was that there was a collapse in the housing market which put many financial institutions on the brink of bankruptcy and the government was rushing to bailout these financial institutions to avert an even worst crisis. And more, like dominoes the rest of the developed world fell into the same kettle of soup. So now that I finally have a computer, I decided to learn more about what had happened and what was being done to right the ship.
It wasn't difficult to see that it was, indeed, the bursting of the real estate bubble in the United States that triggered this crisis. However, I suspect, from all my reading, that the financial institutions and markets around the world were in a
some what fragile state that if it had not been the U. S. housing market collapse, it soon would have been some other cause that would have triggered the crisis.
But what caused the so called housing market bubble and why did the bubble burst? From what I could gather, it comes down to greed , speculation, and liberal lending policies with little or no control.
It all starts with the lenders. A number of years ago Some smart investment banker suggest that there was money to be made in real estate mortgages. If a large number of mortgages were put together in packages for investors to invest in. These packages would be attractive if there was default in a few mortgages the impact would be small on the whole package, i.e., low risk. Ratted AAA, these mortgage REITs ( Real Estate Investment Trusts ) became very popular. some time latter an investment banker got the idea that even more money in higher risk mortgages. the idea was to give mortgage loans to people who couldn't ordinarily qualify for a mortgage by giving them loans that start out with low interest rates which change to higher interest rates as time goes on. After all housing just keep going up so if there are or when there are defaults, the higher value home can be sold to pay off the mortgage. These REITs also got high ratings Some say due to coercion by the big investment banking houses ). And everybody is happy. An estimated 5 million low income people that were previously renting a home were now home owners; they were happy. The banks and savings and loans were happy because they really didn't have to worry about the credit worthiness to their clients because they had no intention of holding onto the mortgages; they were going to sell the mortgages to investment bankers; their profits came from loan origination fees, the more loans they made the more origination fees thy collected. The investment bankers are happy because they are not worried about the credit worthiness behind these mortgages either because they are going to sell them off in the form of REITs and collect their commissions; the more REITs they sell the more commissions they receive. The end investors, the ones that are actualy holding the mortgages, they are happy be cause housing prices keep going up on speculation so their share values keep going up.
So what happened? The best that I can tell is the demand for housing ( People rushing to buy before prices went even higher´, house ownership was always a good investment, interest rates were low, so better buy now. ) caused contractors and developers to build more and more houses on speculation and they often did it with borrowed money. Unfortunately, by 2006 the supply of new houses had greatly exceeded the demand. One
expert wrote that they were building houses faster than new families were being formed to fill them. The result is that housing prices start to fall, fear starts to pervade the markets, the new high risk home owners find themselves in a real bind, their mortgage interest rates have gone up and at he same time the market value of their homes has fallen below their outstanding loans; they begin to default in large numbers. By 2008, the snowball that has been rolling down hill for a year and a half and has been affecting confidence in all market segments rolls off the proverbial cliff. Now all financial institutions are in over their heads. Presto!
World Wide Financial Crisis. Why world wide? Because these REITs had become a favorite by financial institutions around the world. And why not? They had AAA rating and were backed by high value real estate in the United States. What could be better, right?
People are scared and rightly so. They want to know that their governments are going fix this problem and hopefully in a manner that this won't happen again. So what's been done and what more needs to be done?
The first thing that was done was that governments rushed in with $100's of billions of dollars to bailout their financial institutions. now, there are many that say that this is not fair. Why should we be using tax payer money to bailout the S.O.B.s that got us into this mess. Well these people are right; it's not fair. But we can't blame government. They had absolutely no other options. I f they hadn't done the bailout we would all be in much worst shape than we are now. The consensus of the
experts seem to be that the bailout is just a temporary solution; but there is no consensus on what needs to be done in the medium and long term. The "experts" and those that have put a lot of thought into this problem fall int three groups, as best as I can tell. On the left we have the Marxist/socialist/communist government do everything types; while on the right we have the democratic capitalist/free market/government get out of the way types; and the third large group that are totally confused. What hope is there for us mere mortals? So if the "experts" can't come up with a solution that's rational, I'll just have come up with my own.
First a disclaimer. I am not an economist or anything close to an economist. Also, I am definitely a capitalist ( there doesn't seem to be any middle ground on this issue ). Part of the difficulty is both the left and the right are extremely rigid. Neither side is willing to admit that the other side may have some valid points. Before I go on I want to explain why I'm a capitalist.
The Marxist/communist types are fond of pointing out how under democratic capitalism there have been and endless stream of recessions and one depression which result invariably in that those at or near the bottom of the economic ladder are always the ones that suffer the most and government always has to use the tax payers money to bailout the fat cats. Well you know what? They are right. But, I spent a month in Russia a couple of years after the fall of the Soviet Union and I saw first hand the results of seventy years of communism. Also, I came to live in Venezuela in the year 6 BC (Before Chavez ) and so I witnessed how the economic base of this country has been destroyed and the destruction of the legislative, judicial and military institutions. The suffering and misery occasioned at times by democratic capitalism is nothing compared to what happens under extreme socialism.
Okay. How do I propose to fix the problems. First of all, I think that we on the right, the free market democratic capitalist, are the only ones that have a chance of fixing the problems; and we have to start by admitting that we have been part of the problem. We know that capitalism isn't perfect but we've done damn little to make it better. So here I go, this " condanado viejo" offers up the following:
1._ When the left points its finger at the right saying that wealth distribution under democratic capitalism is not equatable, they are right and we know they are right and yet we do almost nothing. Democratic capitalism works best in countries where the majority of the citizens are in the economic middle class. They have a small piece of the pie and they live reasonably well Also, many of those in the middle class feel and believe that if they prepare themselves and work hard , they may become rich, if that's their goal; and they are right, it happens all the time. However, in developing countries and third world countries where the vast majority of their citizens are poor and relatively ignorant ( please bare in mind that ignorant does not equate to stupidity ) democratic capitalism hasn't worked so well. These countries are very vulnerable when a charismatic populist comes along and tells the poor that they deserve the power in the country because they are the majority. Believe me its an easy sell. I have witnessed it and am witnessing it as I write these words. So then, I say with all my heart and sole that we on the right must do much much more to develop and promote ideas that will seriously help the poor to improve their quality of life. It is in our best interest to do so. Because if we don't we run the risk that they will become our worst enemies and they out number us by a long shot.
2._ We on the right must recognize that there needs to be more control on our financial institutions. I'm not saying anything new. Most businesses and all corporations are, for example, required to use approved accounting standards in their reporting of their results and they receive independent audits to ensure that they are complying. There needs to be a similar system of standards and audits in the area of credit in the financial institutions.
3._ Speculation in the stock markets and commodity markets, I believe, is not a good for capitalism in the long run. Markets get distorted and at times are manipulated and this can have serious consecuences. To me it seems that capital gains tax could be a very good tool to at least curb the speculation. If the capital gains tax was, for example, very stiff on assets held for six months or less and a little less stiff on assets held for six months to one year and progressively less until on assets held for at least two years the capital gains tax would be very little. Well you get the idea. I wonder, when did investing become gambling. Everybody is looking for a quick profit instead of deciding after due diligence that this company has a good product, has good manage met and the outlook is for a good future. I want to be an owner of this company. Warren Buffet became and was for many years the richest man in the world and to my knowledge he never once bought a stock speculating that he could make a quick profit. Warren Buffet is an investor. I've known CEO's who sent 95% of their time managing for the next quarter and 5% on long term planning. They were under pressure from their shareholders to do so. I say that these shareholders were not investors they are speculators that goes not just for individual share holders but for the big fund managers as well.
4._ Democratic capitalism often suffers ( it gives the left ammunition to use against us ) from highly publicized scandels for wrong doing in the highest echelons of business. I don't have any suggestions myself other than to say those much smarter than I, need to tink about how we can clean-up our act in this area.
Well there you have it. Sense or non-sense? You decide.